The first thing I’d like to make clear is that I think vaccines generally are a very Good Thing. For example I believe the anti- tuberculosis, smallpox, polio, diphtheria etc vaccines have ‘saved’ many lives around the world. Those had the potential to go on to be enjoyable and productive lives.

Why the quote marks around ‘saved’? Well, to be blunt: I doubt if anyone vaccinated against smallpox before 1900 is alive today. Doctors can’t save your life but they may be able to delay your death.

Of course, that’s not what people generally mean when they talk about treatment saving someone’s life - they mean that the patient is unlikely to die soon from the treated condition and that their general risk of death (from everything else) has returned to near normal.

There was a sad case reported on the BBC news site on 26 Aug 2021 about a woman who died of complications arising from treatment with the anti-Coronavirus vaccine developed by Oxford-AstraZeneca.

Ms Dilks [(the Coroner)] said Ms Shaw [(the deceased)] was previously fit and well but concluded that it was “clearly established” that her death was due to a very rare “vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia”, a condition which leads to swelling and bleeding of the brain.

The following day the BBC news site ran an article which seems to be intended to allay fears that the earlier article may have raised.

In the second article the BBC reported on research into the frequency of a particular condition and stated:

It found that for every 10 million people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca vaccine:

an extra 107 would be hospitalised or die from thrombocytopenia, which can cause internal bleeding and haemorrhages, but that was nearly nine times lower than the risk of the same condition following an infection

Things to note from the two articles:

  • This unfortunate woman was only 44 years old.
  • An extra 107 cases of thrombocytopenia (they don’t report what the typical annual number of cases of this condition is) out of 10,000,000 is 1 in 93,458 - a minuscule extra risk of 0.00107%.
  • They use the term ‘nearly nine times lower than the risk of the same condition following an infection’ which is I believe a clumsy way of stating that the extra risk of the condition due to a Coronavirus case is (nearly) nine times higher than after the vaccination ie 0.00963% - also a minuscule risk.
  • The quoted risks for thrombocytopenia are of hospitalisation or death. Deaths are a (smaller) subset of these risks.

Drawing additional numbers from elsewhere:

  • A woman aged 40-44 has an annual risk of dying (of anything) of 0.104% (average 2013-2019 for England). (Source: ONS via NomisWeb).
    • the risk of a woman aged 40-44 dying of accident, homicide or suicide is 0.017% (average 2013-2019)
    • it seems reasonable to assume that the risk of dying of any other cause (0.087%) is greater among those who are not ‘previously fit and well’.
    • the risk of death from other conditions includes:
      • Accidents: 0.010%
      • Cancer: 0.040%
      • Cirrhosis: 0.010%
      • Covid-19: 0.007% (2020 only)
    • the average risk of death from any cause for the whole population is about 1% - about ten times higher than for women aged 40-44.
  • There have been 40,145,779 first dose Coronavirus vaccinations in England. (Source: Government Covid-19 dashboard, 26 Aug 2021).
    • at 0.00107% this means there have been about 430 extra cases of thrombocytopenia (0.00107% * 40,145,779) associated with the vaccine
    • by definition (first dose) these vaccinations are of over 40m individual people (ie about 71.0% of the population of England)
  • There have been 5,764,066 ‘cases’ of Coronavirus in England (ie about 10.2% of the population). (Source: Government Covid-19 dashboard, 26 Aug 2021).
    • cases of Coronavirus are defined to include a positive test - not necessarily any actual illness. There is much coverage in the media about asymptomatic transmission.
    • these cases may include double counting (eg a person who tests positive in June 2020 and again in January 2021 - but not a person on consecutive tests).
    • by definition we don’t know how many infections with Coronavirus went undetected (or we would have detected them) - but we surely cannot have detected them all.
      • if the concept behind Test and Trace worked then detecting all or most cases would stop the spread of the bug.
      • the question we must ask ourselves is did we detect ‘most’ or ‘some’ or ‘a few’ of the infections?
    • at 0.00963% (nine times higher risk than after vaccination) this means there have been about 555 extra cases of thrombocytopenia due to Coronavirus cases (0.00963% * 5,764,066).
  • The study reports that the risk of developing thrombocytopenia from Coronavirus cases is nine times higher than with the vaccine, but we’ve vaccinated seven times more people than have been detected with Coronavirus (and we’re still pushing for more). As a result the numbers of cases of thrombocytopenia are comparable: 555 vs 430.
  • There were an average of 62.1 deaths per year from thrombocytopenia (ICD-10 D69.3 - D69.6) in England (2013-2019). (Source: ONS via NomisWeb).
    • 62.1 deaths represents 0.00011% of the population of England - it’s rare for this to be main cause of death.
    • cases needing hospital treatment (ie fatal and non-fatal cases) will be some multiple of this number of deaths.
    • as with many other conditions most deaths from thrombocytopenia (ie more than half) occur among the elderly (over 70s).
    • deaths from thrombocytopenia among women aged 40-44 in England are very rare: in 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2019 there were none, 2014:1, 2015:3, 2018:1, 2020:1 (2013-19 average: 0.7).
      • a passing thought: 2014/15 was a bad ‘flu year and early 2018 brought us severe weather (the ‘Beast from the East’). 2020 brought us Covid-19. Perhaps there’s a connection?
      • deaths from thrombocytopenia among women aged 40-44 in England are about 1.13% of the total deaths of people of all ages from this condition (0.7 / 62.1). Women aged 40-44 therefore probably also account for 1.13% of all cases of this condition.
      • to find the number of the additional 430 thrombocytopenia cases that might be associated with women aged 40-44: 1.13% of 430 additional cases is about 5 cases.
      • it seems plausible that out of an estimated five extra cases of thrombocytopenia among women aged 40-44 in England caused by vaccination, one was fatal. This is our first hint of a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) for thrombocytopenia: 1 in 5 or 20%.
  • In England in 2020 there were 122 deaths from Covid-19 among women aged 40-44 ie they had a 0.007% risk of dying of Covid-19. 0.007% is the lower limit for the Infection Fatality Rate if all of the women in this age group (~1.8m women) had been infected and 122 had died.(Source: ONS via NomisWeb).
  • According to ONS weekly death figures there were 163 deaths registered among women aged 40-44 where Covid was mentioned on the death certificates during 2020 and 308 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic to date. (Source: ONS)
    • deaths in this sex and age group during 2020 where the main (underlying) cause was Covid-19 are about 75% (122 / 163) of the number that mention it.
    • it is reasonable to assume that the overall number of deaths during the pandemic to date in this sex and age group where the main cause was Covid-19 is around 230 ((122/163) * 308).
  • From 28 May to 26 August 2020 in England 5,753 women aged 40-49 tested positive for Coronavirus out of a total of 73,553 people. ie they represent 7.8% of detections. Assuming an even distribution within that 10-year age band it is reasonable to assume that women aged 40-44 represent around 3.9% of detected cases (7.8% / 2). (Source: UK Government: Transparency data Demographic data for coronavirus (COVID-19) testing (England): 28 May to 26 August).
    • extrapolating from the dates above to the whole pandemic period to date, 3.9% of 5,764,066 cases of Coronavirus is 225,420 cases. This is an estimate of the number detected cases of Coronavirus among women aged 40-44.
    • 230 deaths out of 225,420 cases gives a CFR of Coronavirus among women aged 40-44 of 0.1% (230 / 225420).
    • as a rule of thumb, the CFR for infectious respiratory diseases is generally assumed to be ten times higher than the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate). This gives an estimated IFR of 0.01% for this sex and age group. We also know the IFR for this group cannot be lower than 0.007%.
      • if the number of cases is understated or deaths overstated then the CFR is lower than 0.1%
      • if the number of cases is overstated or deaths understated then the CFR is higher than 0.1%
      • an IFR of 0.01% for Covid-19 in women aged 40-44 in England is close to the observed fatality rate of 0.007% in 2020 and is consistent with an infection rate of about 70% (ie 70% of women in this age group have been infected at some stage during the pandemic to date)
      • this is also consistent with the finding above that cases of Coronavirus have been detected in about 10.2% of the general population.
      • if 70% of the whole population have been infected with Coronavirus and this has resulted in about 555 extra cases of thrombocytopenia then the case rate for this condition would be roughly equivalent between Coronavirus infections and vaccinations. In other words - there is no significant increase or decrease in risk for this condition between Coronavirus infection or vaccination.
  • The CFR in ‘flu pandemics is generally reckoned to be around 0.1% which implies an estimated IFR of 0.01% across the whole age range of the population. (Source: Wikipedia: List of human disease case fatality rates).
    • for women aged 40-44 the CFR in a ‘flu pandemic should be estimated to be 0.01% (one tenth of the risk to the whole population).
    • this compares unfavourably with the calculated CFR of 0.1% for Coronavirus in this group.

Conclusions

  • The CFR of a pandemic ‘flu is around 0.01% in women aged 40-44.
  • The CFR of Coronavirus is 0.1% in England in this sex and age group. The Coronavirus bug is about ten times more deadly than recent pandemic ‘flus. The IFR will be lower (no lower than 0.007%).
  • In 2021 we’ve vaccinated many women aged 40-44 despite the fact that most of them have probably already caught the Coronavirus and either recovered from illness or not been noticeably ill at all. Around 230 died from this bug during the pandemic so far.
  • The vaccinations of women aged 40-44 probably caused around 5 extra cases of thrombocytopenia at least one of which was fatal.
  • The Coronavirus infections probably caused around 6 extra cases of thrombocytopenia in this sex and age group.
  • The risk of thrombocytopenia from the vaccination or a Coronavirus infection is minuscule.

If most people have been infected (not just detected as cases) with Coronavirus then the lockdowns and lesser restrictions have not been effective. It would be madness to repeat ineffective measures hoping for a different result.

Fin

  • Don’t call me a Covid sceptic - it’s real and it’s a very nasty disease.
  • I’m a lockdown sceptic - lockdowns have not worked.